New research from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan is predicting that Australians will spend more than $50 billion in retail stores this Christmas season.
The ARA & Roy Morgan Annual Pre-Christmas Sales Predictions estimates Aussie spending on holiday gifts and more between November 15 and December 24.
While the predictions for this year are 2.8% higher than those recorded in 2016, this level of growth is lower than the 4% to 5% that retailers were hoping for, according to ARA executive director, Russell Zimmerman:
“Although we have seen retail sales slowly decline across all categories, we believe Christmas will see this year’s trade improve for many Australian retailers.”
Most of Australia’s Christmas shopping is tipped to take place online, with a 3.96% growth figure expected.
Other areas where spending is set to rise include food and liquor (3.27% growth) and hospitality (2.89% growth).
Looking at the stats state by state, the strongest retail sales growth is predicted for Victoria, New South Wales and Victoria.
2017 Pre-Christmas sales growth by category
| State | 2016 pre-Christmas actual results ($mil) | 2017 forecast pre-Christmas sales )$mil) | Predicted growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food | 19,643 | 20,284 | 3.27% |
| Household goods | 8503 | 8704 | 2.37% |
| Apparel | 3869 | 3890 | 0.54% |
| Department stores | 2928 | 2957 | 0.99% |
| Other | 6911 | 7184 | 3.96% |
| Hospitality | 6854 | 7052 | 2.89% |
| National | 48,708 | 50,073 | 2.80% |
2017 pre-Christmas growth by state
| State | 2016 pre-Christmas actual results ($mil) | 2017 forecast pre-Christmas sales ($mil) | Predicted growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | 15,692 | 16,265 | 3.65% |
| VIC | 12,267 | 12,742 | 3.87% |
| QLD | 9838 | 9951 | 1.15% |
| SA | 3164 | 3266 | 3.23% |
| WA | 5386 | 5434 | 0.89% |
| TAS | 967 | 996 | 3.01% |
| NT | 499 | 508 | 1.77% |
| ACT | 895 | 911 | 1.76 |
| National | 48,708 | 50,073 | 2.80% |
Source: ARA and Roy Morgan Research
