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No crash for housing prices yet as homeowners hope for market bounce
Residential property prices in Australia’s capital cities are yet to come down, despite a drop in sales volumes and number of listings due to COVID-19.
Growth in dwelling values for the combined capital cities market are still in positive territory, recording a 0.4 per cent increase in the 28 days to April 21, according to CoreLogic data.
But that 28-day growth rate has slowed from mid-March, when values lifted by 1.1 per cent.
In Sydney, property prices still saw a nominal boost of 0.5 per cent in April 2020, and 4.4 per cent in 2020 to date.
Melbourne has been slightly less resilient in comparison, with values falling by 0.2 per cent in the past month and increasing 2.8 per cent in 2020 so far.
“The pace of growth has weakened and will likely be short lived amid the coronavirus pandemic,” Domain research notes.
Seller activity is falling
Meanwhile, total auction sale volumes in all capital cities have plummeted by at least 30 per cent since the escalation of confirmed COVID-19 cases in March 2020, according to an analysis by the University of New South Wales’ City Futures Research Centre.
Auction sales in Sydney have seen a decline of 79 per cent, equivalent to $454 million, in the past eight weeks. In Melbourne, it has dropped by 85 per cent, or $584 million.
The new data comes as the ban on onsite real estate auctions and open home inspections passes its one-month mark.
Auctions sales represent about 15 per cent of all dwelling sales across Australia, according to CoreLogic.
The number of property listings across capital cities have also fallen by about 22 per cent in the 28 days to April 19, CoreLogic figures show. This may be an indicator of few forced sales due to inability to service repayments.
Eliza Owen, CoreLogic’s Head of Research Australia, said the shortage in available housing supply, thanks to fewer property listings and lower seller activity, could be one of the reasons behind the market’s “relative stability”.
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Homeowners waiting out COVID-19
She added that home sellers who are not desperate to let go of their property may try to wait until buyer confidence is restored in the market.
“The fact that this is a temporary, enforced downturn means that vendors might be holding onto a relatively high expectation of their property value, with a view to sell once the economy returns to full-scale production,” she said.
For those who are not waiting, about 14 per cent and 10 per cent of listings in Sydney and Melbourne respectively have had its asking prices revised in March 2020, according to Domain.
Ms Owen said the banks’ deferral of mortgage repayments have contributed to homeowners’ lack of urgency to sell.
“That is because the only people listing their property in the current climate, may be those who need to sell, because paying off a mortgage is no longer affordable. But the number of people in this situation is minimised by a break in mortgage repayments,” she said.
“A true test for property values may come once these ‘holiday periods’ end. Financial regulators, the RBA and the banking sector may extend reprieve for mortgage repayments in the scenario that the economy has not made improvements within six months.”
While many banks have allowed homeowners to hit pause on their repayments, interest and fees on those repayments will generally continue to accumulate on top of their loan balances. This may result in a higher amount of debt for the owner in the long run.
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Product database updated 24 Apr, 2024
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