The Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked the cash rate multiple times since May 2022, resulting in home loan rates rising across the country. Millions of Australian homeowners are likely asking themselves: when will interest rates fall again?

If you’re looking for the light at the end of the home loan rate hike tunnel, don’t fear. Based on the predictions of the big four banks, we may see interest rates fall again in 2025.

Big four bank predictions: when the cash rate will fall again

In good news for homeowners, the big four banks have forecast that three to five cash rate cuts may occur in 2025-2026. According to the latest forecasts from the big four banks, the cash rate may move as follows:

Big four banks’ cash rate forecasts

• CBA: Predicts a cut each quarter, cash rate falling to to 3.35% by December 2025.
• Westpac: Predicts a cut each quarter, cash rate falling to to 3.35% by December 2025.
• NAB: Predicts a cut each quarter, cash rate falling to to 3.35% by December 2025.
• ANZ: Predicts three more cuts, cash rate falling to 3.35% by August 2025.

It’s still early to say how Donald Trump’s proposed tariff cuts in the U.S. might influence Australian interest rates. But the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has said it's “well placed” to respond if global events start to affect inflation or economic activity at home.

With the RBA’s next cash rate decision due on Tuesday, 20 May 2025, international developments like this will likely be front of mind for the board.

Earlier this year, most economists at Australia’s big four banks were expecting three rate cuts in 2025, except ANZ, which predicted just one. But since April, even ANZ has revised its forecast to match the others—adding that a 50 basis point cut in May isn’t off the table if global sentiment weakens.

Why did rates increase so high so quickly?

The previous cash rate hikes mostly came as a result of inflation, amongst other macroeconomic factors. The RBA has previously indicated that interest rate cuts won’t happen until inflation is clearly moving steadily to the RBA’s ideal level of 2-3%.

However, the latest quarterly CPI data came in lower than expected, which could indicate that a rate cut could be on the cards sooner rather than later. This could offer homeowners some much-needed relief in their budget, though keep in mind that it takes at least 20-30 days post-notification letter from your bank to adjust your interest rate.

It’s also important to keep in mind there is no set rule to when the RBA is likely to cut the cash rate again. Conditions could change in a way that favours a lower rate environment sooner, or much later, than predicted. Without a crystal ball it is hard to pinpoint an exact date, so it may be worthwhile keeping up to date with the latest financial news in the meantime.

Give yourself a rate cut while you wait for rates to drop

Don’t wait around for the economy or the RBA to shift in your favour. These are some of the ways that homeowners may be able to give themselves a rate cut early, including calling your lender.

Keep in mind that not every option will be applicable to your specific financial situation and budget. Interest rates are now much higher than when many home buyers signed up for their mortgage. This means that if you’ve only owned your home for a short period, you may not have built up enough equity to service a new, refinanced home loan.

Make extra repayments

One of the easiest ways to chip away at your principal and potentially reduce the interest charged on your home loan is to make extra repayments – if your budget will allow.

Not every home loan will let you make additional repayments without charge, so check the product disclosure statement (PDS) before proceeding. Even smaller extra repayments of $50 a week could go a long way over time in reducing your home loan repayments.

Offset account

If your home loan comes with one or more offset accounts, it may be worth utilising this home loan feature. Any funds that you deposit into your offset account can work to reduce, or ‘offset’ the amount of interest the lender charges. For example, a $600,000 home loan with $50,000 in its offset account will see interest charged on an updated balance of only $550,000.

Refinance

If you’re seriously struggling to meet your monthly repayments due to higher interest rates, and you’ve been repaying your home loan for some time and/or have built up considerable equity, it may be worth considering refinancing.

Switching to a lower rate home loan may offer your budget some much-needed breathing room in a time of rising rates. Further, many lenders offer new customers their most competitive interest rates to encourage them to sign up, so you may find that you qualify for a bargain.

Switch to a lower rate, but maintain higher repayments

This strategy may involve making extra repayments, but it is done so as to not impact your household budget. You will need to call up your lender and ask for a rate cut, or consider refinancing to a lower rate home loan.

Once you’re on the new, lower-rate mortgage, continue to make the same higher repayments you were making on your old loan. Not only will you help to reduce your loan amount owing, but you won’t need to source extra funds from your budget to do so.

When does the RBA meet in 2025?

• 17–18 February
• 31 March–1 April
• 19–20 May
• 7–8 July
• 11–12 August
• 29–30 September
• 3–4 November
• 8–9 December

Australian new car sales totalled 108,606 in March 2025, slipping 0.9% compared to the same time last year. Despite the slight dip, the standout story was the 380% jump in Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) sales compared to 2025. This surge was driven by buyers moving early to avoid losing the federal Fringe Benefits Tax exemption, which ended on 1 April 2025.

On the electric vehicle (EV) front, momentum appears to be easing. EVs made up just 4.9% of total reported sales—down from 9.5% in March 2024 and 6.8% in 2023. Although 89 EV models are now available in Australia, demand hasn’t kept up. FCAI Chief Executive Tony Weber said the early adopters have acted, but the broader market is yet to follow, a trend echoed in other advanced economies.

Top 5 Brands – March 2025

1. Toyota – 20,541 vehicles
2. Ford – 8,232 vehicles
3. Mazda – 8,000 vehicles
4. Kia – 7,307 vehicles
5. Mitsubishi – 7,265 vehicles

Top 5 Models – March 2025

1. Ford Ranger – 4,932 units
2. Toyota RAV4 – 4,321 units
3. Toyota HiLux – 4,081 units
4. Mitsubishi Outlander – 3,005 units
5. Toyota Prado – 2,871 units

For those looking to buy a new vehicle, comparing car loans could be just as important as choosing the right model. Interest rates, loan terms, and fees can vary significantly between lenders. Taking the time to compare options can help buyers save on monthly repayments and reduce the total cost of the loan.

For a quicker and simpler car loan comparison, you could consider using RateCity’s Real Time Ratings™. These simple star ratings reflect the cost and flexibility that each car loan offers at any given time, as they are updated regularly. The top-rated car loans in different categories are ranked on RateCity’s Car Loan Leaderboards, and may be eligible for a RateCity Gold Award.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate on hold at 4.10% in its April meeting, leaving borrowers wondering whether more cuts are still on the cards. The answer may be yes, especially in light of the global uncertainty sparked by renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.

While Australia is well placed to handle the direct impact, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has cautioned that broader global shifts could slow economic growth and slightly lift inflation. In response to these developments, ANZ—previously the only big four bank expecting just one cut this year—has revised its forecast to three rate cuts in May, July and August, each by 25 basis points.

If that plays out, the cash rate could fall to 3.35% by August.

While you wait for future rate cuts, some lenders are already offering sharper deals following February’s cash rate cut. It could be worth comparing your options now to see if you’re getting the best possible value.

Cashback deals for refinancers

To win over new customers, some lenders are offering cashback incentives for borrowers who refinance. At the time of writing, around 10 lenders have active cashback offers—most of which are aimed at refinancers. These typically range between $2,000 and $4,000, depending on the lender and the loan size.

Cashback can be used however you like—whether that’s covering refinancing costs, boosting your offset account, or tackling household expenses. But while these offers can be appealing, they shouldn’t be the only reason to switch.

To get the most from refinancing, look beyond the cash and compare interest rates, fees, and features. A well-matched home loan could save you far more over the long term than a one-off incentive.

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate in February for the first time in the current cycle, offering a sign of relief to borrowers after a long stretch of rate hikes. But in April, the RBA held steady at 4.10%, signalling a cautious wait-and-watch approach as it monitors inflation trends, global risks, and domestic economic data.

Meanwhile, global developments are starting to weigh in. Recent tariff announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump are likely to have significant implications for global trade and growth. These tariffs, which have raised the average U.S. tariff rate to its highest level in a century, are expected to slow global demand, potentially impacting inflation and economic growth worldwide. 

Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that while Australia can manage the direct impact of these tariffs, economic growth will likely suffer due to the slowdown in the U.S. and Chinese economies. The tariffs could lead to a 0.1% decrease in Australian GDP by 2025 and a 0.2% rise in inflation.

 

This changing global outlook is now being factored into interest rate forecasts. ANZ, which previously held a more conservative view, now expects three rate cuts in 2025.

In the meantime, homeowners can give themselves a rate cut by exploring the market for refinancing deals that may suit their situation better.

Switching to a home loan with more favourable terms may ease financial strain. However, it’s essential to assess the overall cost of switching, including fees and other expenses. Borrowers should also evaluate the features and flexibility of various loans to identify options that align with their unique financial goals and household needs.

RateCity’s Real Time Ratings™ can help you quickly compare the options available to you by combining their cost and flexibility into a single star rating. These ratings are updated frequently, and the top-rated choices are ranked on RateCity’s Home Loan Leaderboards. Some of the top-rated mortgage deals in different categories may also be eligible for a RateCity Gold Award.

Will interest rates rise in 2025? Or, will there be another cut?

From May 2022 to November 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased the cash rate 13 times to help tame inflation.

This current cycle of cash rate movements started with a cash rate of 0.10% in April 2022. The cycle peaked at 4.35%, but in February 2025, the RBA made its first move in the other direction – cutting the cash rate to 4.10%.

That shift has many borrowers hopeful that more relief could be on the way. If banks pass on further cuts in full, it could help ease mortgage repayment pressure.

Still, the RBA is being cautious. Inflation remains a concern, and global uncertainties – including US trade policy and shifting commodity prices – are influencing the outlook.

While the RBA held the rate steady in April 2025, some economists from the big four banks now expect the next cut could come as early as May.

We’ll have a clearer picture when the RBA meets again on Tuesday, May 20. Meanwhile, we may look to the big four bank economic teams for some clues.

Big four banks’ cash rate forecasts

The RBA has kept the cash rate on hold throughout 2024, and while the Governor has stated that rate cuts are unlikely in the near term, it’s never a guarantee.

Following the rate cut in February 2025, the big four bank economic teams have all cast their predictions for the next series of cash rate movements:

• CBA: Predicts a cut each quarter, cash rate falling to to 3.35% by December 2025.
• Westpac: Predicts a cut each quarter, cash rate falling to to 3.35% by December 2025.
• NAB: Predicts a cut each quarter, cash rate falling to to 3.35% by December 2025.
• ANZ: Predicts three more cuts, cash rate falling to 3.35% by August 2025.

ANZ economists were previously forecasting a single rate cut but updated their forecast ​in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's recent tariff announcements. They now anticipate the RBA will implement three 25 basis point cuts to the cash rate in May, July, and August 2025, bringing it down to 3.35%. They also acknowledge the possibility of a larger 50 basis point cut in May if global economic conditions worsen significantl

Keep in mind that these are just predictions, and that the big banks are subject to change these forecasts.

What would a cash rate cut mean for my home loan?

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, the average existing owner-occupier is on a variable home loan rate of 6.03%.

This is what average home loan interest rates may look like if the big four bank predictions are accurate, and the banks pass on the rate cuts in full.

Average interest rates based on big four bank cash rate predictions 

CBA
	Change	Cash rate
Q2 25	-0.25%	3.85%
Q3 25	-0.25%	3.60%
Q4 25	-0.25%	3.35%
Westpac
	Change	Cash rate
May-25	-0.25%	3.85%
Aug-25	-0.25%	3.60%
Nov-25	-0.25%	3.35%
NAB
	Change	Cash rate
Q2-2025	-0.25%	3.85%
Q3 2025	-0.25%	3.60%
Q4 2025	-0.25%	3.35%
Q1 2026	-0.25%	3.10%
ANZ
	Change	Cash rate
May-25	-0.25%	3.85%
Jul-25	-0.25%	3.85%
Aug-25	-0.25%	3.85%

Source: RateCity.com.au, big bank cash rate forecasts as of 08/04/2025.

If you are currently on a variable rate home loan, and your lender has passed on these rate hikes in full, you may find your home loan repayments have become significantly more expensive.

If you are still on a fixed rate home loan from the low-rate era, when your loan term ends you may be reverted to a much higher interest rate.

How high have mortgage repayments risen?

RateCity has crunched the numbers on how these rate hikes could have affected repayments on a 25-year, $500,000 home loan.

Assuming that your lender passed on every single cash rate hike in full to your home loan, and that you are on a variable rate loan, you may have found that your monthly repayments were $1210 more expensive in April 2024 compared to April 2022.

How much more you may have paid on your home loan in 2024

Home loan	Monthly repayments
Average rate in April 2022 – 2.86%	$2,335
Forecast average rate in 2024 – 7.11%	$3,545
Difference	$1,210

Source: RBA average owner-occupier variable rate for existing customers, April 2022. RateCity.com.au. Note: Based on a 25-year, $500k home loan, comparing repayments with RBA average rate in April of 2.86% versus a 7.11% interest rate from CBA’s predicted cash rate peak of 4.35% in 2024. Does not factor in fees.

This is a significant amount for homeowners to find within their already strained household budgets - the equivalent of buying a new iPhone every month! Homeowners may want to take action as soon as possible to accommodate higher repayments, including:

• Making extra repayments to chip away at your loan principal;
• Paying into an offset account or redraw facility to help reduce your interest charges; and
• Refinancing to a lower-rate lender if it suits your financial needs and budget.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked the cash rate multiple times since May 2022, resulting in home loan rates rising across the country. Millions of Australian homeowners are likely asking themselves: when will interest rates fall again?

If you’re looking for the light at the end of the home loan rate hike tunnel, don’t fear. Based on the predictions of the big four banks, we may see interest rates fall again in 2025.

Big four bank predictions: when the cash rate will fall again

In good news for homeowners, the big four banks have forecast that three to five cash rate cuts may occur in 2025-2026. According to the latest forecasts from the big four banks, the cash rate may move as follows:

Big four banks’ cash rate forecasts

• CBA: Predicts a cut each quarter, cash rate falling to to 3.35% by December 2025.
• Westpac: Predicts a cut each quarter, cash rate falling to to 3.35% by December 2025.
• NAB: Predicts a cut each quarter, cash rate falling to to 3.35% by December 2025.
• ANZ: Predicts three more cuts, cash rate falling to 3.35% by August 2025.

It’s still early to say how Donald Trump’s proposed tariff cuts in the U.S. might influence Australian interest rates. But the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has said it's “well placed” to respond if global events start to affect inflation or economic activity at home.

With the RBA’s next cash rate decision due on Tuesday, 20 May 2025, international developments like this will likely be front of mind for the board.

Earlier this year, most economists at Australia’s big four banks were expecting three rate cuts in 2025, except ANZ, which predicted just one. But since April, even ANZ has revised its forecast to match the others—adding that a 50 basis point cut in May isn’t off the table if global sentiment weakens.

Why did rates increase so high so quickly?

The previous cash rate hikes mostly came as a result of inflation, amongst other macroeconomic factors. The RBA has previously indicated that interest rate cuts won’t happen until inflation is clearly moving steadily to the RBA’s ideal level of 2-3%.

However, the latest quarterly CPI data came in lower than expected, which could indicate that a rate cut could be on the cards sooner rather than later. This could offer homeowners some much-needed relief in their budget, though keep in mind that it takes at least 20-30 days post-notification letter from your bank to adjust your interest rate.

It’s also important to keep in mind there is no set rule to when the RBA is likely to cut the cash rate again. Conditions could change in a way that favours a lower rate environment sooner, or much later, than predicted. Without a crystal ball it is hard to pinpoint an exact date, so it may be worthwhile keeping up to date with the latest financial news in the meantime.

Give yourself a rate cut while you wait for rates to drop

Don’t wait around for the economy or the RBA to shift in your favour. These are some of the ways that homeowners may be able to give themselves a rate cut early, including calling your lender.

Keep in mind that not every option will be applicable to your specific financial situation and budget. Interest rates are now much higher than when many home buyers signed up for their mortgage. This means that if you’ve only owned your home for a short period, you may not have built up enough equity to service a new, refinanced home loan.

Make extra repayments

One of the easiest ways to chip away at your principal and potentially reduce the interest charged on your home loan is to make extra repayments – if your budget will allow.

Not every home loan will let you make additional repayments without charge, so check the product disclosure statement (PDS) before proceeding. Even smaller extra repayments of $50 a week could go a long way over time in reducing your home loan repayments.

Offset account

If your home loan comes with one or more offset accounts, it may be worth utilising this home loan feature. Any funds that you deposit into your offset account can work to reduce, or ‘offset’ the amount of interest the lender charges. For example, a $600,000 home loan with $50,000 in its offset account will see interest charged on an updated balance of only $550,000.

Refinance

If you’re seriously struggling to meet your monthly repayments due to higher interest rates, and you’ve been repaying your home loan for some time and/or have built up considerable equity, it may be worth considering refinancing.

Switching to a lower rate home loan may offer your budget some much-needed breathing room in a time of rising rates. Further, many lenders offer new customers their most competitive interest rates to encourage them to sign up, so you may find that you qualify for a bargain.

Switch to a lower rate, but maintain higher repayments

This strategy may involve making extra repayments, but it is done so as to not impact your household budget. You will need to call up your lender and ask for a rate cut, or consider refinancing to a lower rate home loan.

Once you’re on the new, lower-rate mortgage, continue to make the same higher repayments you were making on your old loan. Not only will you help to reduce your loan amount owing, but you won’t need to source extra funds from your budget to do so.

When does the RBA meet in 2025?

• 17–18 February
• 31 March–1 April
• 19–20 May
• 7–8 July
• 11–12 August
• 29–30 September
• 3–4 November
• 8–9 December