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Alex Ritchie
- 5 min readLatest News
Interest Rate Predictions & Forecast Australia | RateCity
After over a decade of cutting the cash rate, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased rates almost every month from April 2022 to June 2023. Homeowners and would-be borrowers may be nervously wondering how high their home loan rates will go.
The big four banks have all cast their predictions for the next few years of cash rate movements. The cash rate started at 0.10% in April 2022. For the average owner-occupier paying a variable rate, your home loan rate could reach 7.36% in 2023.
Big four bank’s cash rate forecasts
- CBA: Peak of 4.35% in November 2023, then dropping to 2.85% by June 2025
- Westpac: Peak of 4.35% in November 2023, then dropping to 2.85% by December 2025
- NAB: Peak of 4.60% by February 2024, then dropping to 3.10% by March 2026
- ANZ: Peak of 4.35% in November 2023, then dropping to 3.35% by June 2025
Keep in mind that these are just predictions, and that the big banks are subject to change these forecasts.
The RBA kept the cash rate on hold in its final meeting for 2023 in December. Homeowners are likely breathing a sigh of relief, especially as the next meeting will not be until February 2024. Unfortunately for Australians with a mortgage, one of the Big Four Banks, NAB, is still predicting that another cash rate hike is likely. The bank has tipped that the cash rate will peak at 4.60% in February.
Homeowners may want to keep in mind that the big banks are still predicting rates will fall again in late 2024. Only time will tell if borrowers will see some relief to their mortgage repayments next year.
How high could your mortgage interest rate rise?
Prior to the first cash rate hike, the average existing owner-occupier variable home loan rate in April 2022 was 2.86%, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.
This is what average home loan interest rates may look like if the big four bank predictions are accurate:
Average interest rates based on big four bank cash rate predictions
Starting Month |
Average rates based on CBA forecast |
Average rates based on Westpac forecast |
Average rates based on NAB forecast |
Average rates based on ANZ forecast |
Apr-22 |
2.86% |
2.86% |
2.86% |
2.86% |
May-22 |
3.11% |
3.11% |
3.11% |
3.11% |
Jun-22 |
3.61% |
3.61% |
3.61% |
3.61% |
Jul-22 |
4.11% |
4.11% |
4.11% |
4.11% |
Aug-22 |
4.61% |
4.61% |
4.61% |
4.61% |
Sep-22 |
5.11% |
5.11% |
5.11% |
5.11% |
Oct-22 |
5.36% |
5.36% |
5.36% |
5.36% |
Nov-22 |
5.61% |
5.61% |
5.61% |
5.61% |
Dec-22 |
5.86% |
5.86% |
5.86% |
5.86% |
Feb-23 |
6.11% |
6.11% |
6.11% |
6.11% |
Mar-23 |
6.36% |
6.36% |
6.36% |
6.36% |
Apr-23 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
May-23 |
6.61% |
6.61% |
6.61% | 6.61% |
Jun-23 |
6.86% |
6.86% |
6.86% | 6.86% |
Jul-23 |
- |
- |
- | - |
Aug-23 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Sep-23 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Nov-23 |
7.11% |
7.11% |
7.11% |
7.11% |
Feb-24 |
- |
- |
7.36% |
- |
Aug-24 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Sep-24 |
6.86% |
6.86% |
- |
- |
Nov-24 |
6.61% |
- |
6.86% |
- |
Dec-24 |
6.36% |
6.61% |
- | 6.86% |
Feb-25 |
6.11% |
- |
6.61% | - |
Mar-25 |
5.86% |
6.36% |
- |
6.61% |
May-25 |
5.61% |
- |
6.36% |
- |
Jun-25 |
- |
6.11% |
- |
6.36% |
Aug-25 |
- | - | 6.11% | - |
Sep-25 |
- | 5.86% | - | - |
Nov-25 |
- | - | 5.86% | - |
Dec-25 |
- | 5.61% | - | - |
Feb-26 |
- |
- |
5.61% |
- |
CASH RATE PEAK |
4.35% |
4.35% |
4.60% |
4.35% |
Source: RateCity.com.au, Big bank rate hike forecasts as of 04/12/2023.
If you are currently on a variable rate home loan, and your lender passes on these rate hikes in full, you may find your home loan repayments become significantly more expensive. If you are still on a fixed rate home loan from the low-rate era, when your loan term ends you may be reverted to a much higher interest rate.
How high could your mortgage repayments rise?
RateCity has crunched the numbers on how these rate hikes could impact repayments on a 25-year, $500,000 home loan.
Assuming that your lender passes on every single cash rate hike in full to your home loan as per NAB's predictions, and that you are currently repaying a variable rate loan, you may find that your monthly repayments are $1,287 more expensive in 2023 compared to April 2022.
How much more you may pay on your home loan in 2023
Home loan | Monthly repayments |
Average rate in April 2022 – 2.86% | $2,335 |
Forecast average rate in 2023 – 7.36% | $3,622 |
Difference | $1,287 |
Source: RBA average owner-occupier variable rate for existing customers, April 2022. RateCity.com.au. Note: Based on a 25-year, $500k home loan, comparing repayments with RBA average rate in April of 2.86% versus a 7.36% interest rate from NAB's predicted cash rate peak of 4.60% in 2024. Does not factor in fees.
This is a significant amount for homeowners to find within their already strained household budgets - the equivalent of buying a new iPhone every month. Homeowners may want to take action as soon as possible to accommodate higher repayments, including:
- Making extra repayments to chip away at your loan principal;
- Paying into an offset account or redraw facility to help reduce your interest charges; and
- Refinancing to a lower-rate lender if it suits your financial needs and budget.

Mark Bristow
- 2 min readLatest News
NAB launches Meet Now virtual appointment service for home loan customers
A new service from National Australia Bank (NAB), is set to connect Australians with home loan bankers within 15 minutes, providing increased convenience in the age of digital banking.
The new service, Meet Now, will pool 600 lending specialists across Australia to serve customers anywhere in the country. Customers can simply call NAB or visit a NAB branch to be connected with a home loan banker online within 15 minutes, whether to discuss buying a property, refinancing an existing loan, switching a mortgage over to NAB, or any other home loan enquiry.
NAB retail executive, Krissie Jones, said that the launch of Meet Now was a response to increased demand for more convenient banking services, with virtual appointments for GPs, accountants, real estate agents and wedding planners exploding in popularity following the pandemic.
“We’re seeing customers in Toowoomba being served by bankers in Perth later into the evening so they can get their banking done after their working day. We’ve found the time differences across Australia are really working to our customer’s favour. It doesn’t matter if you’re in Darwin, Wagga, Melbourne or Chinchilla, you can now be chatting with a lending specialist from the comfort of your home, coffee shop or workplace.”
According to NAB, 93% of its transactions are happening online, clearly demonstrating the increased popularity of digital banking. But as well as using the Meet Now service, customers can also book in-person appointments with mortgage specialists at NAB branches across Australia.
But NAB isn’t the only one of Australia's Big Four Banks that has recently launched digital home loans. In November 2023, ANZ introduced an end to end digital home loan through its ANZ Plus mobile app. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Bank has launched Unloan as both a digital home loan product and separate brand. Each of these offers seek to take advantage of the opportunities offered by technology for faster approval processes and access to useful tools.
Whether you’re applying for a home loan traditionally or looking at one of the app-based digital home loan offers, before contacting any bank or mortgage lender, you may want to first compare your options. Consider the interest rates, fees, features and benefits of different mortgage deals from a variety of other lenders, to make sure you’re choosing a home loan that will suit your personal financial situation and future goals.

Eden Radford
- 4 min readLatest News
ANZ increases rate on its basic variable loan
ANZ, Australia’s fourth largest home loan lender, has today increased the rate of its basic variable mortgage by 0.10 percentage points for both owner-occupiers and investors paying principal and interest, and investors paying interest-only.
This increase, which is in addition to the November RBA rate hike, does not impact existing customers.
Today’s change to ANZ’s Simplicity PLUS home loan
Loan type | Old rate | New rate | Change %-pts |
Owner-occupier (P&) | 6.44% | 6.54% | +0.10 |
Investor (P&I) | 6.59% | 6.69% | +0.10 |
Investor (IO) | 6.94% | 7.04% | +0.10 |
Source: RateCity.com.au. LVR requirements apply.
New customer rate increases slowing, but still coming in the door
While the pace of the big four bank new customer rate increases has slowed from earlier in the year, recent hikes from Westpac and NAB show the trend for these rates is still up.
Today’s increase from ANZ is the 25th hike among the major banks for new customers since 1 March 2023, in addition to the RBA cash rate increases (see table of hikes at end).
However, it’s not just the big four banks increasing new customer rates. The RateCity.com.au database shows:
- 17 lenders have increased at least one new variable rate in the last month, in addition to the RBA hikes.
- 89 per cent of all lenders have increased at least one new customer variable rate in this time, in addition to the RBA hikes.
What are the big banks offering for basic variable loans?
This hike from ANZ now puts Westpac in the lead for a basic variable loan – although, at an introductory rate, it’s only ahead for two years.
Significantly, CBA is continuing to offer a more expensive option on its basic variable, at 6.59 per cent, compared to its loan available with an offset, at 6.49 per cent.
Big four banks’ lowest advertised variable rates
Rate type | CBA | Westpac | NAB | ANZ |
Basic variable | 6.59% | 6.44% for 2yrs
then +0.40% |
6.84% | 6.54% |
Var. with offset | 6.49% | 7.44% | 7.57% | 7.24% |
Source: RateCity.com.au. Rates are for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest. LVR requirements apply.
Lowest ongoing variable rates available on RateCity.com.au database
Of those that have announced their RBA cash rate increase
Lender | Rate |
Abal Bank | 5.75% |
Illawarra Credit Union | 5.79% |
Northern Inland Credit Union | 5.84% |
Regional Australia Bank | 5.87% |
Auswide Bank | 5.89% |
Source: RateCity.com.au. Rates are for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest. LVR requirements apply.
RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall, said: “ANZ has said it would fight for new customers, however today’s rate hike suggests it’s only prepared to go so far.”
“This will be disappointing news for potential customers who had their eye on this rate from ANZ. Those already in the process of getting a Simplicity Plus mortgage should ask the bank if it will honour the previous rate,” she said.
“ANZ still has a couple of cashback offers on the table with $2,000 for select refinancers and $3,000 for first home buyers. This is likely to keep its home loan book moving at a decent pace, despite this new customer hike.
“While the big banks race each other for the prize of most uncompetitive advertised rates, smaller lenders are still prepared to fight for new business. The RateCity.com.au database shows there are currently 31 lenders offering variable rates under 6 per cent following the November RBA rate hike.
“If you live in the home you own, and have a decent stake in it, you can still get a competitive variable rate, however, you might have to go with a lender you’ve never heard of before,” she said.
Variable rate hike from the big four banks since 1 March 2023
Note: these hikes are in addition to RBA increases
Date | Bank | Loan | Change %-pts |
1 March 23 | CBA | Basic variable | up to 0.10 |
1 Mar + 10 Mar 23 | NAB | Basic variable | up to 0.20 |
25 March 23 | CBA | Basic variable | up to 0.70 |
28 March 23 | ANZ | Basic variable | up to 0.21 |
31 March 23 | CBA | Package loan | up to 0.20 |
13 April 23 | Westpac | Basic variable | 0.10 |
14 April 23 | CBA | Package loan | up to 0.12 |
21 April 23 | ANZ | Basic variable | up to 0.10 |
28 April 23 | NAB | Basic variable | up to 0.05 |
12 May 23 | CBA | Basic + package | up to 0.10 |
23 May 23 | NAB | Basic variable | up to 0.10 |
24 May 23 | CBA | Package loan | up to 0.10 |
16 June 23 | CBA | Basic variable | up to 0.10 |
23 June 23 | CBA | Package loan | up to 0.10 |
23 June 23 | Westpac | Basic variable | 0.15 |
14 July 23 | CBA | Basic variable | up to 0.07 |
27 July 23 | ANZ | Basic variable | up to 0.15 |
28 July 23 | NAB | Basic variable | up to 0.10 |
11 August 23 | CBA | Basic variable | up to 0.05 |
30 August 23 | NAB | Basic variable | up to 0.15 |
13 September 23 | Westpac | Basic variable | 0.10 |
27 October 23 | NAB | Basic variable | 0.10 |
24 November 23 | Westpac | Basic variable | up to 0.10 |
8 December 2023 | ANZ | Basic variable | 0.10 |
Source: RateCity.com.au

Eden Radford
- 3 min readLatest News
Credit card debt ticks up in October
Australia’s total credit card debt attracting interest charges grew by $129 million in the month of October, the first increase since May.
This lift in debt comes as borrowers continue to migrate back to the plastic. The latest RBA credit cards statistics, released today, shows the number of accounts increased by almost 6,000 between September and October and by almost 200,000 compared to a year ago.
Credit card statistics: personal credit in October 2023
Note: commercial cards are excluded
Amount | Monthly change | Year-on-year change | |
Debt accruing interest | $17.40 billion | +$129 million
0.7% |
+$515 million
+3.1% |
Number of accounts | 12.62 million
Highest since March 21 |
+5,913
0.05% |
+198,125
+1.6% |
Source: RBA, released 7 December 2023, original data, excludes commercial cards. Monthly change is September 2023 to October 2023, year-on-year change is October 2022 to October 2023.
Balances accruing interest vs number of accounts: personal credit card
Source: RBA
Total value of transactions: personal credit and debit cards in October 2023
Amount | Monthly change | Year-on-year change | |
Credit (personal cards only) | $26.77 billion | -$385 million
-1.4% |
+$481 million
+1.8% |
Debit | $49.21 billion | +$394 million
+0.8% |
+$3.68 billion
+8.1% |
Total | $75.98 billion | +$9 million
+0.01% |
+$4.16 billion
+5.8% |
Source: RBA, released 7 December 2023, seasonally adjusted data, excludes commercial cards. Monthly change is September 2023 to October 2023, year-on-year change is October 2022 to October 2023.
RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall, said: “For the last four months, Australians have been making steady progress in bringing down credit card debt, but October’s results have broken this streak.”
“Debt might be up, but it’s not by much when factoring in the rise in the number of cards. On a per account basis, credit card debt accruing interest rose by less than $10, taking the average debt per account to $1,379 – almost half of what it was over a decade ago. Collectively, we’ve come along way when it comes to wizening up to the perils of credit card debt,” she said.
“The problem is, millions of Australians have credit cards and owe nothing, while others have 5 or 10 times this debt.
“All eyes will be on the next four months of data. If history is anything to go by, credit card debt will keep ticking up over the silly season. While this is routinely a headache for many Australians at the start of each New Year, it’s particularly concerning this time around as families will also be battling against rising rates and cost of living pressures.
“If you’ve already blown the budget in the lead up to Christmas, remember, you’ve got time to rein it in.
“Plan out a lower-cost Christmas, find some free activities over summer and get yourself back on track so you can enjoy 2024 rather than dread it,” she said.

Mark Bristow
- 2 min readLatest News
Some of the top-rated term deposits in December 2023
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping the national cash rate on hold at 4.35% in December 2023, not a lot of movement is expected for term deposit interest rates in the immediate future. But with some economists forecasting that the RBA could hike rates again in February 2024 if inflation doesn’t fall fast enough, It may become possible to give your savings an extra boost later in the new year.
Keep in mind that nor every bank or other authorised deposit-taking institution (ADI) may pass on a future rate rise. For example, following the RBA rate hike in November 2023, the banks and ADIs that raised rates for their savings account and term deposit customers were a relatively short list. At the start of December 2023, just 40% of all savings accounts had raised rates following the RBA hike.
Whether you already have your savings in a term deposit, or you’re planning to open an account, remember that the money in a term deposit can do more than just help you grow your wealth through interest earnings. Term deposits are also considered financial assets, so they can be used as collateral when borrowing money with a secured loan.
Before you open a term deposit or consider rolling your savings over to an alternative option once your current deposit reaches maturity, it’s important to compare the options available to you. RateCity’s Real Time Ratings™ can help you quickly work out the value of different term deposits, as these simple star ratings combine the interest and the flexibility offered by each deal. The top-rated term deposits can be found on RateCity’s term deposit leaderboards, and may become eligible for RateCity Gold Awards.
(Rankings are correct at the time of publishing. Please note lenders may trade places on the list as interest rates and fees change and RateCity’s tracker reflects these movements.)

The average borrower has shelled out almost $25K extra since the start of the hikes
Eden Radford
- 6 min read