Two pronged plan to jump start Australia’s economy: Philip Lowe

Two pronged plan to jump start Australia’s economy: Philip Lowe

Australia’s economic future depends on containing the spread of the coronavirus and how well it can create jobs going forward, the head of Australia’s central bank said, as the country charters difficult conditions including a contracting economy, high unemployment and state border closures.

Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe is watching how New South Wales manages small breakouts of the COVID-19 coronavirus, describing the management as a “test case” illustrating how other state economies can operate in the midst of a pandemic.

“If NSW can manage some limited community transmission with first rate testing, contact testing and tracing...if that can work then we should be able to open up the economy,” Mr Lowe told a parliamentary committee today.

“It should give us confidence that we could keep on top of it … That you can open up, give people some freedom, have economic (activity) … and have some control. 

“If NSW can’t make this a success, then we’re going to face a lot more challenges.”

Containing the coronavirus spread is key

Mr Lowe, addressing a House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics, provided “sobering” insights on the country’s economic health. 

“We are expecting the Australian economy to contract by around 6 per cent this year, and then grow by 5 per cent next year and 4 per cent in 2022,” he said.

Victoria’s second lockdown -- due to a rising number of COVID-19 cases, including 278 yesterday -- is likely to reduce GDP growth in the September quarter by 2 per cent, and broadly offset the recovery taking place in most other parts of the country, Mr Lowe said.

“The reality we face is the economy is not going to recover until we get on top of the virus,” he said.

“If we were to see further setbacks in detaining the virus the recovery will be detained even further.”

Help job creation and we’ll ride it out

Containing the coronavirus was one part of a two prong plan, Mr Lowe said. He was steadfast in asserting job creation as being key in minimising the collateral of a recession.

The Reserve Bank is forecasting unemployment to rise to 10 per cent by the end of the year, before gradually declining to 7 per cent, where it’s expected to hover for “a few years’ time”.

The rate could be higher too were it to include people whose weekly work hours were reduced to zero.

“Let’s get people to have jobs and then we can worry about the wages,” he said, in response to questioning on low wage growth among younger workers at risk of career scarring

“If they don’t have jobs, it hurts the economy and it hurts society and causes other problems. 

“(Job creation) should be our singular focus.”

Should mortgage holidays be extended, again?

The goal of stimulating job creation oriented the policies the Reserve Bank is both putting into practice and considering.

When asked about further delaying people’s mortgage repayments -- a measure formally extended by four months yesterday -- Mr Lowe said a minority of people had relied on the relief measure.

“It’s too early to be talking about further deferrals at this stage,” he said.

“About 10 per cent (of people have deferred their mortgage repayments) … It’s a significant number, but not the majority. 

“The solution to most of the problems we face is more jobs … If you’re worried about loan deferrals, then it comes back to creating jobs.”

What about negative interest rates?

Standing committee member Dr Andrew Leigh prodded Mr Lowe on his decision to not introduce negative interest rates, instead choosing to hold the cash rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25 per cent.

“Wouldn’t a year of negative rates be better than a decade of zero rates?,” Dr Leigh asked.

Mr Lowe said he hadn’t ruled out negative interest rates, but noted they were “extraordinarily unlikely”, because they would provide little relief and impair the credit lending abilities of banks. 

“I don’t think the cost-benefit justifies negative interest rates,” he said.

“... It’s not about (bank) profits, it’s really about jobs. 

“Negative interest rates would hurt jobs...and arguably, make it worse.”

Jobs, jobs, jobs

Mr Lowe ended his opening statement by stressing the importance of creating an environment where jobs would be born.

“High unemployment is likely to be with us for some time, which should be a concern for us all,” he said.

“The Reserve Bank will do what it can with its policy instruments to support the journey back to full employment. 

“Beyond that, government policies that support people's incomes, that add to aggregate demand through direct government spending and that make it easier for firms to hire people all have important roles to play. 

“We need to make sure that Australia is a great place for businesses to expand, invest, innovate and employ people.”

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Learn more about home loans

What are the pros and cons of no-deposit home loans?

It’s no longer possible to get a no-deposit home loan in Australia. In some circumstances, you might be able to take out a mortgage with a 5 per cent deposit – but before you do so, it’s important to weigh up the pros and cons.

The big advantage of borrowing 95 per cent (also known as a 95 per cent home loan) is that you get to buy your property sooner. That may be particularly important if you plan to purchase in a rising market, where prices are increasing faster than you can accumulate savings.

But 95 per cent home loans also have disadvantages. First, the 95 per cent home loan market is relatively small, so you’ll have fewer options to choose from. Second, you’ll probably have to pay LMI (lender’s mortgage insurance). Third, you’ll probably be charged a higher interest rate. Fourth, the more you borrow, the more you’ll ultimately have to pay in interest. Fifth, if your property declines in value, your mortgage might end up being worth more than your home.

How much deposit will I need to buy a house?

A deposit of 20 per cent or more is ideal as it’s typically the amount a lender sees as ‘safe’. Being a safe borrower is a good position to be in as you’ll have a range of lenders to pick from, with some likely to offer up a lower interest rate as a reward. Additionally, a deposit of over 20 per cent usually eliminates the need for lender’s mortgage insurance (LMI) which can add thousands to the cost of buying your home.

While you can get a loan with as little as 5 per cent deposit, it’s definitely not the most advisable way to enter the home loan market. Banks view people with low deposits as ‘high risk’ and often charge higher interest rates as a precaution. The smaller your deposit, the more you’ll also have to pay in LMI as it works on a sliding scale dependent on your deposit size.

What happens to my home loan when interest rates rise?

If you are on a variable rate home loan, every so often your rate will be subject to increases and decreases. Rate changes are determined by your lender, not the Reserve Bank of Australia, however often when the RBA changes the cash rate, a number of banks will follow suit, at least to some extent. You can use RateCity cash rate to check how the latest interest rate change affected your mortgage interest rate.

When your rate rises, you will be required to pay your bank more each month in mortgage repayments. Similarly, if your interest rate is cut, then your monthly repayments will decrease. Your lender will notify you of what your new repayments will be, although you can do the calculations yourself, and compare other home loan rates using our mortgage calculator.

There is no way of conclusively predicting when interest rates will go up or down on home loans so if you prefer a more stable approach consider opting for a fixed rate loan.

How much debt is too much?

A home loan is considered to be too large when the monthly repayments exceed 30 per cent of your pre-tax income. Anything over this threshold is officially known as ‘mortgage stress’ – and for good reason – it can seriously affect your lifestyle and your actual stress levels.

The best way to avoid mortgage stress is by factoring in a sizeable buffer of at least 2 – 3 per cent. If this then tips you over into the mortgage stress category, then it’s likely you’re taking on too much debt.

If you’re wondering if this kind of buffer is really necessary, consider this: historically, the average interest rate is around 7 per cent, so the chances of your 30 year loan spending half of its time above this rate is entirely plausible – and that’s before you’ve even factored in any of life’s emergencies such as the loss of one income or the arrival of a new family member.

Do mortgage brokers need a consumer credit license?

In Australia, mortgage brokers are defined by law as being credit service or assistance providers, meaning that they help borrowers connect with lenders. Mortgage brokers may not always need a consumer credit license however if they’re operating solo they will need an Australian Credit License (ACL). Further, they may also need to comply with requirements asking them to mention their license number in full.

Some mortgage brokers can be “credit representatives”, or franchisees of a mortgage aggregator. In this case, if the aggregator has a license, the mortgage broker need not have one. The reasoning for this is that the franchise agreement usually requires mortgage brokers to comply with the laws applicable to the aggregator. If you’re speaking to a mortgage broker, you can ask them if they receive commissions from lenders, which is a good indicator that they need to be licensed. Consider requesting their license details if they don’t give you the details beforehand. 

You should remember that such a license protects you if you’re given incorrect or misleading advice that results in a home loan application rejection or any financial loss. Brokers are regulated by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC), as per the National Consumer Credit Protection (NCCP) Act. 

What are the responsibilities of a mortgage broker?

Mortgage brokers act as the go-between for borrowers looking for a home loan and the lenders offering the loan. They offer personalised advice to help borrowers choose the right home loan for their needs.

In Australia, mortgage brokers are required by law to carry an Australian Credit License (ACL) if they offer credit assistance services. Which is the legal term for guidance regarding the different kinds of credit offered by lenders, including home loan mortgages. They may not need this license if they are working for an aggregator, for instance, as a franchisee. In both these situations, they need to comply with the regulations laid down by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).

These regulations, which are stipulated by Australian legislation, require mortgage brokers to comply with what are called “responsible lending” and “best interest” obligations. Responsible lending obligations mean brokers have to suggest “suitable” home loans. This means loans that you can easily qualify for,  actually meet your needs, and don’t prove unnecessarily challenging for you.

Starting 1 January 2021, mortgage brokers must comply with best interest obligations in addition to responsible lending obligations. These require mortgage brokers to act in the best interest of their customers and also requires them to prioritise their customers’ interests over their own. For instance, a mortgage broker may not recommend a lender who gives them a commission if that lender’s home loan offer does not benefit that particular customer.

How to break up with your mortgage broker

If you find a mortgage broker giving you generic advice or trying to sell you a competitive offer from an unsuitable lender, you might be better off  breaking up with the mortgage broker and consulting someone else. Breaking up with a mortgage broker can be done over the phone, or via email. You can also raise a complaint, either with the broker’s aggregator or with the Australian Financial Complaints Authority as necessary.

As licensed industry professionals, mortgage brokers have the responsibility of giving you accurate advice so that you know what to expect when you apply for a home loan. You may have approached the mortgage broker, for instance, because you have questions about the terms of a home loan a lender offered you. 

You should remember that mortgage brokers are obliged by law to act in your best interests and as part of complying with The Australian Securities and Investments Commission’s (ASIC) regulations. If you feel you didn’t get the right advice from the mortgage broker, or that you lost money as a result of accepting the broker’s suggestions regarding a lender or home loan offer, you can file a complaint with the ASIC and seek compensation. 

When you first speak to a mortgage broker, consider asking them about their Lender Panel, which is the list of lenders they usually recommend and who may pay them a commission. This information can help you decide if the advice they give you has anything to do with the remuneration they may receive from one or more lenders.

How do I take out a low-deposit home loan?

If you want to take out a low-deposit home loan, it might be a good idea to consult a mortgage broker who can give you professional financial advice and organise the mortgage for you.

Another way to take out a low-deposit home loan is to do your own research with a comparison website like RateCity. Once you’ve identified your preferred mortgage, you can apply through RateCity or go direct to the lender.

What happens when you default on your mortgage?

A mortgage default occurs when you are 90 days or more behind on your mortgage repayments. Late repayments will often incur a late fee on top of the amount owed which will continue to gather interest along with the remaining principal amount.

If you do default on a mortgage repayment you should try and catch up in next month’s payment. If this isn’t possible, and missing payments is going to become a regular issue, you need to contact your lender as soon as possible to organise an alternative payment schedule and discuss further options.

You may also want to talk to a financial counsellor. 

How personalised is my rating?

Real Time Ratings produces instant scores for loan products and updates them based what you tell us about what you’re looking for in a loan. In that sense, we believe the ratings are as close as you get to personalised; the more you tell us, the more we customise to ratings to your needs. Some borrowers value flexibility, while others want the lowest cost loan. Your preferences will be reflected in the rating. 

We also take a shorter term, more realistic view of how long borrowers hold onto their loan, which gives you a better idea about the true borrowing costs. We take your loan details and calculate how much each of the relevent loans would cost you on average each month over the next five years. We assess the overall flexibility of each loan and give you an easy indication of which ones are likely to adjust to your needs over time. 

Do other comparison sites offer the same service?

Real Time RatingsTM is the only online system that ranks the home loan market based on your personal borrowing preferences. Until now, home loans have been rated based on outdated data. Our system is unique because it reacts to changes as soon as we update our database.

How does Real Time Ratings work?

Real Time RatingsTM looks at your individual home loan requirements and uses this information to rank every applicable home loan in our database out of five.

This score is based on two main factors – cost and flexibility.

Cost is calculated by looking at the interest rates and fees over the first five years of the loan.

Flexibility is based on whether a loan offers features such as an offset account, redraw facility and extra repayments.

Real Time RatingsTM also includes the following assumptions:

  • Costs are calculated on the current variable rate however they could change in the future.
  • Loans are assumed to be principal and interest
  • Fixed-rate loans with terms greater than five years are still assessed on a five-year basis, so 10-year fixed loans are assessed as being only five years’ long.
  • Break costs are not included.

Mortgage Calculator, Repayment Type

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What fees are there when buying a house?

Buying a home comes with ‘hidden fees’ that should be factored in when considering how much the total cost of your new home will be. These can include stamp duty, title registration costs, building inspection fees, loan establishment fee, lenders mortgage insurance (LMI), legal fees and bank valuation costs.

Tip: you can calculate your stamp duty costs as well as LMI in Rate City mortgage repayments calculator

Some of these fees can be taken out of the mix, such as LMI, if you have a big enough deposit or by asking your lender to waive establishment fees for your loan. Even so, fees can run into the thousands of dollars on top of the purchase price.

Keep this in mind when deciding if you are ready to make the move in to the property market.