Victoria could take top housing spot from NSW



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The reign of New South Wales as Australia’s leader in housing construction could be on the verge of coming to an end, with Victoria poised to potentially usurp the position in 2018. Meanwhile, increasing activity in Tasmania and Western Australia could see these areas grow significantly in the future.

The HIA Housing Scorecard – Winter 2017 (a half yearly review of residential building conditions in each state and territory) from the Housing Industry Association (HIA) has seen NSW at the top of its ranking for the past two years, followed by Victoria in second place, both fuelled by strong population growth, house prices and demand for affordable housing.

However, with construction starting to slow as housing developments are completed, it’s possible that Victoria could overtake NSW and claim the HIA’s top spot by 2018.  With many property investors leaving the market due to increased levels of regulation around interest-only loans, it would take significant first home buyer activity to keep NSW in the top spot. But due to housing affordability challenges, this scenario could be unlikely.

One of the big movers of then HIA Housing Scorecard proved to be Tasmania, which was one of just two states that recorded increases to residential building activity, with room left to grow further in the future. These findings align with recent SQM research that saw strong growth in Hobart’s asking rents over the past few years.

The other state that saw residential building activity increase was WA, which had previously been struggling following the end of the resources boom. As previously noted by HIA, WA’s housing market appears to be reaching an equilibrium, and with the recorded improvement to building activity, the state could be on the verge of returning to strength.

HIA Housing Scorecard – Winter 2017

Rank State State score Score change Rank change Market momentum
1 NSW 94 -3 Unchanged Neutral
2 VIC 85 -2 Unchanged Neutral
3 QLD 65 -7 Unchanged Negative
4 ACT 64 -3 Up 1 Neutral
5 TAS 63 17 Up 3 Positive
6 SA 58 2 Down 2 Neutral
7 WA 38 5 Down 1 Positive
8 NT 37 -9 Down 1 Negative

Source: HIA

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