Ten years of value growth; how Australia's property market has transformed

Ten years of value growth; how Australia's property market has transformed

There has been a lot of talk about Australia’s “hot property market”, however there has actually been little value growth over the past decade outside of Sydney and Melbourne, with negative growth in some regions, according to research by CoreLogic. 

There have been several influential factors affecting value growth around Australia over the past decade, including:

  • The Global Financial Crisis (GFC)
  • Periods of rising and falling mortgage rates
  • Heightened levels of investment
  • Growing demand for housing from foreign investors

Change in dwelling values, 10 years to January 2018

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Source: CoreLogic

National dwelling value growth increased by 41.8 per cent over the 10 years leading to January 2018. This has mainly been driven by Sydney and Melbourne, which saw significant dwelling value growth over the decade.

Sydney dwelling values grew 79.3 per cent, followed by Melbourne dwelling values increasing by 72.4 per cent. Regional Victoria also saw strong growth levels (42.7 per cent), making these three regions the only places in Australia to see value growth in excess of the National figure.

Regional WA saw the largest decrease in dwelling value, falling by -29.5 per cent. This was followed by Perth (-6.9 per cent) and Regional QLD (-5.1 per cent). These areas were also hit hard during the GFC, and have struggled to climb out of negative numbers.

Decline in dwelling values during GFC (early 2008 to early 2009)

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Source: CoreLogic

CoreLogic Head Researcher, Cameron Kusher, has described the influence of the 2008 GFC as causing “dwelling values to begin to slide” but the housing market improved shortly after.

“Although the periods of decline varied across regions, generally values started to fall early in 2008 with value growth returning in early 2009.  The declines were fairly short and sharp.

“The declining housing market was reversed due to two main factors: a swift reduction in mortgage rates and the introduction of government stimulus including additional first home buyer incentives which helped stimulate growth in demand and subsequently values,” said Kusher.

Western Australia dwelling value growth suffered most significantly in this time, with Regional WA falling by -12.2 per cent, and Perth falling by -11 per cent.

Decline in dwelling values between 2010-2012

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Source: CoreLogic

CoreLogic data found that between June 2010 and February 2012, national dwelling values fell by -6.5 per cent.

During this period, QLD overtook WA in declining dwelling values across Australia. Regional QLD fell by -11.1 per cent and Brisbane fell by -10.6 per cent.

“Following the stimulus-led re-inflation of dwelling values post-GFC, as the stimulus was removed from the market values once again started to fall,” said Mr Kusher.

“First home buyer incentives were removed and the Reserve Bank started to lift interest rates from their generational lows.

“Between 2010 and 2012, although timing does vary somewhat across the regions, the national housing market once again experienced value declines,” said Mr Kusher.

Change in dwelling values from their historic market peak to January 2018

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Source: CoreLogic

CoreLogic has also charted the differences between dwelling values as of January 2018, and that areas historic peak. For most of Australia, current dwelling values are lower than their highest peak throughout the last decade.

Brisbane and Hobart are the only capital cities in which values were not lower than their previous peak over the ten year period. This was also seen in Regional NSW, Regional VIC and Regional Tas.

The most significant change over the ten year period was seen in Regional WA. Dwelling values in Regional WA for January 2018 are 29.5 per cent lower than when they were at last at peak ten years ago (January 2008).

In terms of capital cities, Darwin saw the most significant change in dwelling values as of January 2018 compared to its peak. Dwelling values in Darwin for January 2018 are 21.7 per cent lower than when they were at last at peak in May 2014.

According to CoreLogic Head Researcher, Cameron Kusher, this data highlights that “despite most regions of the country having seen dwelling values increase over the past decade, within that decade there have been periods in which values have fallen.” 

“The data presented also highlights how during the value growth periods, growth has very much been slanted towards the Sydney and Melbourne markets.

“With dwelling values now falling in a number of regions, it will be interesting to see how rapidly values, fall, what may or may not be done to slow the falls and how the market declines will compare to other periods of decline over the past decade,” said Mr Kusher.

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How can I get ANZ home loan pre-approval?

Shopping for a new home is an exciting experience and getting a pre-approval on the loan may give you the peace of mind that you are looking at properties within your budget. 

At the time of applying for the ANZ Bank home loan pre-approval, you will be required to provide proof of employment and income, along with records of your savings and debts.

An ANZ home loan pre-approval time frame is usually up to three months. However, being pre-approved doesn’t necessarily mean you will get your home loan. Other factors could lead to your home loan application being rejected, even with a prior pre-approval. Some factors include the property evaluation not meeting the bank’s criteria or a change in your financial circumstances.

You can make an application for ANZ home loan pre-approval online or call on 1800100641 Mon-Fri 8.00 am to 8.00 pm (AEST).

How long does Bankwest take to approve home loans?

Full approval for a home loan usually involves a property valuation, which, Bankwest suggests, can take “a week or two”. As a result, getting your home loan approved may take longer. However, you may get full approval within this time if you applied for and received conditional approval, sometimes called a pre-approval, from Bankwest before finalising the home you want to buy.  

Another way of speeding up approvals can be by completing, signing, and submitting your home loan application digitally. Essentially, you give the bank or your mortgage broker a copy of your home’s sale contract and then complete the rest of the steps online. Bankwest has claimed this cuts the approval time to less than four days, although this may only happen if your income and credit history can be verified easily, or if your home’s valuation doesn’t take time.

Why should I get an ING home loan pre-approval?

When you apply for an ING home loan pre-approval, you might be required to provide proof of employment and income, savings, as well as details on any on-going debts. The lender could also make a credit enquiry against your name. If you’re pre-approved, you will know how much money ING is willing to lend you. 

Please note, however, that a pre-approval is nothing more than an idea of your ability to borrow funds and is not the final approval. You should receive the home loan approval  only after finalising the property and submitting a formal loan application to the lender, ING. Additionally, a pre-approval does not stay valid indefinitely, since your financial circumstances and the home loan market could change overnight.

 

 

Remaining loan term

The length of time it will take to pay off your current home loan, based on the currently-entered mortgage balance, monthly repayment and interest rate.

Can I apply for an ANZ non-resident home loan? 

You may be eligible to apply for an ANZ non-resident home loan only if you meet the following two conditions:

  1. You hold a Temporary Skill Shortage (TSS) visa or its predecessor, the Temporary Skilled Work (subclass 457) visa.
  2. Your job is included in the Australian government’s Medium and Long Term Strategic Skills List. 

However, non-resident home loan applications may need Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) approval in addition to meeting ANZ’s Mortgage Credit Requirements. Also, they may not be eligible for loans that require paying for Lender’s Mortgage Insurance (LMI). As a result, you may not be able to borrow more than 80 per cent of your home’s value. However, you can apply as a co-borrower with your spouse if they are a citizen of either Australia or New Zealand, or are a permanent resident.

What are the pros and cons of no-deposit home loans?

It’s no longer possible to get a no-deposit home loan in Australia. In some circumstances, you might be able to take out a mortgage with a 5 per cent deposit – but before you do so, it’s important to weigh up the pros and cons.

The big advantage of borrowing 95 per cent (also known as a 95 per cent home loan) is that you get to buy your property sooner. That may be particularly important if you plan to purchase in a rising market, where prices are increasing faster than you can accumulate savings.

But 95 per cent home loans also have disadvantages. First, the 95 per cent home loan market is relatively small, so you’ll have fewer options to choose from. Second, you’ll probably have to pay LMI (lender’s mortgage insurance). Third, you’ll probably be charged a higher interest rate. Fourth, the more you borrow, the more you’ll ultimately have to pay in interest. Fifth, if your property declines in value, your mortgage might end up being worth more than your home.

Does Australia have no-deposit home loans?

Australia no longer has no-deposit home loans – or 100 per cent home loans as they’re also known – because they’re regarded as too risky.

However, some lenders allow some borrowers to take out mortgages with a 5 per cent deposit.

Another option is to source a deposit from elsewhere – either by using a parental guarantee or by drawing out equity from another property.

What is a loan-to-value ratio (LVR)?

A loan-to-value ratio (otherwise known as a Loan to Valuation Ratio or LVR), is a calculation lenders make to work out the value of your loan versus the value of your property, expressed as a percentage.   Lenders use this calculation to help assess your suitability for a home loan, and whether you need to pay lender’s mortgage insurance (LMI). As a general rule, most banks will require you to pay LMI if your loan-to-value ratio is 80 per cent or more.   LVR is worked out by dividing the loan amount by the value of the property. If you are looking for a quick ball-park estimate of LVR, the size of your deposit is a good indicator as it is directly proportionate to your LVR. For instance, a loan with an LVR of 80 per cent requires a deposit of 20 per cent, while a 90 per cent LVR requires 10 per cent down payment. 

LOAN AMOUNT / PROPERTY VALUE = LVR%

While this all sounds simple enough, it is worth doing a more accurate calculation of LVR before you commit to buying a place as there are some traps to be aware of. Firstly, the ‘loan amount’ is the price you paid for the property plus additional costs such as stamp duty and legal fees, minus your deposit amount. Secondly, the ‘property value’ is determined by your lender’s valuation of the property, not the price you paid for it, and sometimes these can differ so where possible, try and get your bank to evaluate the property before you put in an offer.

How much deposit will I need to buy a house?

A deposit of 20 per cent or more is ideal as it’s typically the amount a lender sees as ‘safe’. Being a safe borrower is a good position to be in as you’ll have a range of lenders to pick from, with some likely to offer up a lower interest rate as a reward. Additionally, a deposit of over 20 per cent usually eliminates the need for lender’s mortgage insurance (LMI) which can add thousands to the cost of buying your home.

While you can get a loan with as little as 5 per cent deposit, it’s definitely not the most advisable way to enter the home loan market. Banks view people with low deposits as ‘high risk’ and often charge higher interest rates as a precaution. The smaller your deposit, the more you’ll also have to pay in LMI as it works on a sliding scale dependent on your deposit size.

How much can I borrow with a guaranteed home loan?

Some lenders will allow you to borrow 100 per cent of the value of the property with a guaranteed home loan. For that to happen, the lender would have to feel confident in your ability to pay off the mortgage and in the security provided by your guarantor.

Can I get a NAB home loan on casual employment?

While many lenders consider casual employees as high-risk borrowers because of their fluctuating incomes, there are a few specialist lenders, such as NAB, which may provide home loans to individuals employed on a casual basis. A NAB home loan for casual employment is essentially a low doc home loan specifically designed to help casually employed individuals who may be unable to provide standard financial documents. However, since such loans are deemed high risk compared to regular home loans, you could be charged higher rates and receive lower maximum LVRs (Loan to Value Ratio, which is the loan amount you can borrow against the value of the property).

While applying for a home loan as a casual employee, you will likely be asked to demonstrate that you've been working steadily and might need to provide group certificates for the last two years. It is at the lender’s discretion to pick either of the two group certificates and consider that to be your income. If you’ve not had the same job for several years, providing proof of income could be a bit of a challenge for you. In this scenario, some lenders may rely on your year to date (YTD) income, and instead calculate your yearly income from that.

Does Australia have no cost refinancing?

No Cost Refinancing is an option available in the US where the lender or broker covers your switching costs, such as appraisal fees and settlement costs. Unfortunately, no cost refinancing isn’t available in Australia.

Can I change jobs while I am applying for a home loan?

Whether you’re a new borrower or you’re refinancing your home loan, many lenders require you to be in a permanent job with the same employer for at least 6 months before applying for a home loan. Different lenders have different requirements. 

If your work situation changes for any reason while you’re applying for a mortgage, this could reduce your chances of successfully completing the process. Contacting the lender as soon as you know your employment situation is changing may allow you to work something out. 

If I don't like my new lender after I refinance, can I go back to my previous lender?

If you wish to return to your previous lender after refinancing, you will have to go through the refinancing process again and pay a second set of discharge and upfront fees. 

Therefore, before you refinance, it’s important to weigh up the new prospective lender against your current lender in a number of areas, including fees, flexibility, customer service and interest rate.